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SIBYL Baseline

SIBYL Baseline

by Emisia SA

Projecting the Road Ahead for Transport Emissions

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Onye Dike
Updated by Onye Dike on August 10th, 2026
SIBYL Baseline is a road-transport dataset from EMISIA providing historical and projected vehicle fleet, activity, emissions, and energy-consumption data from 1990 to 2050. Covering the EU27 plus ten additional European countries, it is aimed at policymakers, researchers, consultants, transport authorities, and organizations assessing future road-transport trends. The dataset is generated using SIBYL’s bottom-up fleet methodology and is compatible with COPERT, EMISIA’s vehicle-emissions calculation software. Rather than focusing only on current emissions, SIBYL Baseline provides a consistent long-term view of how changing vehicle populations, technologies, activity, and legislation can influence energy demand, greenhouse gases, and air pollutants.

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Pricing

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Available Since

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Deployment Options

  • Web Browser (Cloud - Based)

Good Option For

  • Freelancers (1 person company)
  • Microbusiness (2-10 people)
  • Small Business (11-50 people)
  • Medium Business (51-250 people)
  • Large Business (250+ people)

Deep dive

Core Features

SIBYL uses a bottom-up approach, calculating year-by-year changes in vehicle fleet composition and emissions. Its features include:

  • Long-term fleet projections: Provides historical and projected vehicle-stock and activity data spanning 1990–2050.

  • GHG and pollutant emissions: Covers well-to-wheel greenhouse-gas emissions alongside air pollutants, supporting analysis beyond tailpipe CO₂ alone.

  • Energy-consumption projections: Estimates future road-transport energy requirements alongside changes in fleet activity and emissions.

  • Detailed vehicle coverage: The baseline incorporates around 760 road-vehicle types, including conventional and alternative powertrains.

  • European country coverage: Supplies national-level data for all 27 EU Member States plus ten additional European countries.

  • COPERT compatibility: Uses emission factors from the latest COPERT version and can provide inputs for COPERT and subsequent cost-assessment modelling.

Closing Insights

SIBYL Baseline sits within EMISIA’s wider transport-emissions modelling work. EMISIA describes SIBYL as a comprehensive model for assessing vehicle-stock, air-pollutant, and GHG projections, while the redesigned Baseline turns its methodology into a COPERT-compatible dataset. This relationship makes the dataset particularly relevant where historical emissions inventories need to be extended into future transport projections, as recently used for national road-transport emissions projections in Iceland.

Free sample data is available, but the complete dataset uses a non-free licence, pricing of which are available on request. For users modelling European transport transitions, its combination of country-level fleet history and projections through 2050 provides a bridge between observed vehicle activity and forward-looking emissions analysis.

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