Ocean Sustainability Faces Growing Pressure From Geopolitical Tensions and Climate Change

Oceans play a critical role in regulating the global climate, supporting biodiversity, and sustaining economic activity. They absorb around a quarter of global carbon dioxide emissions, provide food and livelihoods for billions of people, and enable trade, energy production, and digital connectivity. Yet despite their central importance, ocean sustainability is facing mounting pressure from a combination of climate change, economic competition, and geopolitical tensions.

An analysis published by the Stockholm Environment Institute underscores how these pressures are increasingly interconnected, creating complex risks for policymakers, businesses, and coastal communities. The article argues that while scientific understanding of ocean degradation has advanced, political cooperation and governance mechanisms are struggling to keep pace.

Climate Impacts Intensifying Ocean Stress

Climate change is amplifying existing challenges across marine systems. Rising ocean temperatures are driving coral bleaching, shifting fish stocks, and increasing the frequency of marine heatwaves. Ocean acidification, caused by higher concentrations of dissolved carbon dioxide, is weakening shell-forming organisms and disrupting food chains. Sea level rise is accelerating coastal erosion and threatening low-lying communities and infrastructure.

These impacts are not evenly distributed. Small island developing states and coastal developing economies are often the most exposed, yet they typically have the least capacity to adapt. Fisheries-dependent nations face declining catches and more volatile stocks, while coastal cities must invest heavily in protection, relocation, or resilience measures.

From a net-zero perspective, ocean degradation also undermines natural climate solutions. Mangroves, seagrasses, and salt marshes store large amounts of carbon, often referred to as blue carbon. Damage to these ecosystems reduces their ability to mitigate emissions and can even turn them into net sources of emissions.

Rising Competition Over Ocean Resources

As land-based resources become constrained, competition over ocean space and resources is intensifying. Offshore renewable energy, seabed mining, fisheries, shipping routes, and submarine cables increasingly overlap. While offshore wind is essential for decarbonizing power systems, poorly coordinated development can conflict with fishing, biodiversity protection, and local livelihoods.

The SEI analysis highlights that these competing uses are becoming entangled with national security and economic strategies. Control over shipping lanes, access to critical minerals from the seabed, and dominance in offshore energy supply chains are now part of broader geopolitical calculations. This raises the risk that sustainability objectives are sidelined in favor of short-term strategic interests.

Seabed mining is a particularly contentious issue. Proponents argue it could supply metals needed for batteries and clean energy technologies. Critics warn of irreversible ecological damage and major knowledge gaps. Disagreements over whether and how to regulate deep-sea mining reflect wider tensions between environmental precaution and industrial ambition.

Fragmented Governance and Weak Cooperation

Ocean governance is inherently complex. Unlike terrestrial systems, large areas of the ocean lie beyond national jurisdiction, requiring international agreements and cooperation. While frameworks such as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea exist, enforcement is uneven, and sectoral governance remains fragmented.

According to SEI, rising geopolitical tensions are making cooperation more difficult at precisely the moment when stronger collective action is needed. Trust between states is eroding, multilateral institutions are under strain, and global negotiations often move slowly. This creates gaps that allow overfishing, pollution, and unregulated exploitation to persist.

The recently agreed treaty on biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction represents a step forward, but implementation will be critical. Without sufficient funding, data sharing, and enforcement capacity, new commitments risk remaining largely symbolic.

Implications for Industry and Investors

For businesses, especially those operating in shipping, energy, seafood, and coastal infrastructure, these trends translate into growing operational and transition risks. Climate impacts can disrupt supply chains, damage assets, and alter resource availability. Regulatory uncertainty and geopolitical fragmentation complicate long-term planning and investment decisions.

At the same time, there are opportunities for companies that align with sustainable ocean practices. Investments in resilient ports, low-emission shipping, ecosystem restoration, and responsibly developed offshore renewables can support both climate goals and economic stability. Transparent supply chains and engagement with coastal communities are increasingly important for managing social and reputational risks.

Financial institutions are also beginning to factor ocean health into risk assessments. Degraded marine ecosystems can undermine the value of assets and increase the likelihood of stranded investments, particularly where climate and biodiversity risks intersect.

A Strategic Pillar of the Net-Zero Transition

The SEI analysis concludes that oceans must be treated as a strategic pillar of climate and sustainability policy, not a secondary concern. This requires integrating ocean considerations into national climate strategies, strengthening international cooperation, and aligning economic incentives with long-term ecosystem health.

For net-zero pathways to remain credible, governments and industries must recognize that ocean protection, climate mitigation, and geopolitical stability are closely linked. Failure to address these connections risks locking in environmental damage, economic losses, and political conflict that will be far more costly to resolve in the future.

Source: www.sei.org